What Is Conversion Modeling?

Conversion modeling is a statistical technique, used in tools like Google Consent Mode, that estimates conversions from users who didn't consent to tracking by extrapolating from the behavior of users who did. It fills reporting gaps created by consent restrictions and cookieless states, without collecting individual-level data from non-consenting users.

As more traffic declines cookies or blocks tracking outright, straightforward conversion counts undercount reality. Conversion modeling addresses that gap statistically: it uses aggregate patterns from consenting users to estimate what’s happening with the rest, via Google Consent Mode (v2). The tradeoff is that modeled numbers are estimates, not observed counts, worth knowing before treating them as precisely as directly measured conversions.